Taiwan's trade imbalance and exchange rate revisited

Abstract

This article applies the recently developed econometric method of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to re-examine the relationship between the exchange rate and bilateral trade imbalance for Taiwan and its several trading partners: China, Hong Kong, the US, Japan, South Korea and Malaysia. The implication of this issue is critical to policy makers, particularly after China and Taiwan joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in late 2001 and early 2002, respectively. The empirical evidence shows a stable long-run relationship of bilateral trade balance and real exchange rate between Taiwan and its trading partners except Japan. Other findings indicate that except for the US, there is no specific pattern supporting the J-curve phenomenon for these trading partners.