Taiwan in 1995: Electoral Politics and Cross-Strait Relations

Abstract

Taiwan went through a year of political turbulence in 1995. Across the Taiwan Strait, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) GeneralSecretary Jiang Zemin's eight-point policy proposal in January for peaceful reunification generated a sense of optimism for improved Taiwan-mainland relations. But this had subsided in July when the Beijing authorities launched the first of four military exercises aimed at intimidating Taiwan after President Lee Teng-hui visited the United States. By year's end, the cross-strait relationship had suffered serious political setbacks, as Beijing's bellicose rumblings damaged the atmosphere of reconciliation that had developed since 1987 through trade, investment, tourism, and semi-official contacts. Not since the early 1960s has the People's Republic of China (PRC) displayed such military belligerence toward its Taiwanese compatriots. As Beijing authorities poise themselves for continued military intimidation, at least through Taiwan's first popular presidential election in March 1996, security in the Taiwan Strait could get worse before it gets better. On the domestic front, partisan politics perforated this young democracy; the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) was saddled with internal dissension over the nomination of candidates for president and vice-president. Three leading figures left the KMT to run against the party ticket of incumbent President Lee Teng-hui and Premier Lien Chan. The departures of KMT Vice-Chairman Lin Yang-kang and former Premier Hau Pei-ts'un further split the party. This political dissension had the immediate effect of diluting the KMT vote in the December election for the Legislative Yuan and benefiting the New Party, whose leaders had left the KMT in 1993. The outcome of the parliamentary election, as well as the political dynamics of the upcoming presiden-