Tailoring allocation policies and improving access to paediatric liver transplantation over a 16-year period

Abstract

Mortality on the paediatric liver transplantation (pLT) waiting list (WL) is still an issue. We analysed the Italian pLT WL to evaluate the intention-to-treat (ITT) success rate and to identify factors influencing success. All children (<18 years) listed for pLT in Italy between 2002-2018 were included (Era 1 [2002-2007]: centre-based allocation; Era 2 [2008-2014]: national allocation; Era 3 [2015-2018]: national allocation+mandatory-split policy). A total of 1,424 patients (median age: 2.0 [IQR 1.0-9.0] years; median weight: 12.0kg [IQR 7-27]) were listed for pLT. Median WL time was 2 days (IQR 1-5) for Status 1 and 44 days (IQR 15-120) for non-Status 1 patients; 1,302 children (91.4%) were transplanted (67.3% with split grafts), while 50 children (3.5%) dropped off the WL (2.5% death, 1.0% clinical deterioration). Predictive factors for receiving LT included Status 1 (hazard ratio [HR] 1.66, p= 0.001), Status 1B (HR 1.96, p= 0.016), Status 2A (HR 2.15, p= 0.024) and each 1-point increase in PELD/MELD score. Children with recipient's weight >25kg, blood group O or awaiting pLT combined with other organs had less chance of being transplanted. ITT patient survival rates were 90.5% at 1 year and 87.5% at 5 years, remaining stable across eras. Risk factors for ITT survival were re-transplantation (HR 5.83, p <0.001), Status 1 (HR 2.28, p= 0.006), Status 1B (HR 2.90, p= 0.014), Status 2A (HR 9.12, p <0.001), recipient weight <6kg (HR 4.53, p <0.001) and low-volume activity (HR 4.38, p= 0.001). In Italy, continuous adaption of paediatric organ allocation policies via the introduction of national allocation, paediatric prioritisation rules and a mandatory-split policy have helped maximise the use of donors for paediatric candidates and to minimise WL mortality without compromising outcomes. Globally, paediatric liver transplant candidates still suffer from high mortality. Over recent decades, the continuous adaption of organ allocation policies in Italy has led to excellent outcomes for children awaiting liver transplantation. The mortality rate of paediatric liver transplant candidates has been minimised to almost zero, mainly using grafts from deceased donors. Paediatric prioritisation rules, national organ exchange organisation and a mandatory-split liver policy have resulted in a unique allocation model for paediatric liver transplant candidates and represent a landmark for the paediatric transplant community.