TADA: Trend Alignment with Dual-Attention Multi-task Recurrent Neural Networks for Sales Prediction

Abstract

As a common strategy in sales-supply chains, the prediction of sales volume offers precious information for companies to achieve a healthy balance between supply and demand. In practice, the sales prediction task is formulated as a time series prediction problem which aims to predict the future sales volume for different products with the observation of various influential factors (e.g., brand, season, discount, etc.) and corresponding historical sales records. However, with the development of contemporary commercial markets, the dynamic interaction between influential factors with different semantic meanings becomes more subtle, causing challenges in fully capturing dependencies among these variables. Besides, though seeking similar trends from the history benefits the accuracy for the prediction of upcoming sales, existing methods hardly suit sales prediction tasks because the trends in sales time series are more irregular and complex. Hence, we gain insights from the encoder-decoder recurrent neural network (RNN) structure, and propose a novel framework named TADA to carry out trend alignment with dualattention, multi-task RNNs for sales prediction. In TADA, we innovatively divide the influential factors into internal feature and external feature, which are jointly modelled by a multi-task RNN encoder. In the decoding stage, TADA utilizes two attention mechanisms to compensate for the unknown states of influential factors in the future and adaptively align the upcoming trend with relevant historical trends to ensure precise sales prediction. Experimental results on two real-world datasets comprehensively show the superiority of TADA in sales prediction tasks against other state-of-the-art competitors.