T6-3 - Risk assessment and decision-making strategies in dangerous good transport. From an Italian case-study to a general framework

Abstract

This paper discusses the risk associated with the transportation of dangerous goods by road and strategies for selecting road load/routes by developing a site-oriented framework of general applicability. A methodological approach for the assessment of standard vehicle and dangerous good truck flows was applied to a pilot area, allowing a statistical reinforced evaluation of intrinsic enhancing/mitigating parameters. In this way a risk assessment sensitive to route specifics and population exposed is proposed and the overall uncertainties by the risk analysis can be lowered. The developed model, of general applicability, can represent a useful tool not only to estimate transport risk but also to define strategies for the reduction of risk and emergency management. Poor appreciation of factors related to road conditions such as road class, designated speed limits, traffic density, as well as of the population characteristics, is likely to result in a risk assessment insensitive to route specifics and over- or under-estimating the overall level of risk. The results show that the risk associated with the transport of hazardous materials on the highway considered in the chapter is at the limit of the personally acceptable level of risk.