Abstract

ABSTRACT Background Intravenous glucocorticoid (IVGC) remains the main treatment for moderate-to-severe and active thyroid-associated ophthalmopathy (TAO). However, a substantial number (20–30%) of active moderate-to-severe TAO patients may not respond to IVGC. Some patients may have disease progression despite IVGC treatment or relapse after steroid withdrawal. Objectives To analyze risk factors for clinical activity and predictive factors for clinical outcomes of 4.5 g IVGC therapy in patients with moderate-to-severe TAO. Design and methods Our study was performed in two steps: step 1 involved 110 moderate-to-severe TAO patients and analyzed risk factors for TAO activity; step 2 involved 53 active moderate-to-severe TAO patients from step 1 who were treated with 4.5 g IVGC therapy and analyzed predictive factors for clinical outcomes of IVGC therapy. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent predictors and establish the predictive model. Results Abnormal TRAb (OR = 4.717; P = 0.019) and the percentage of CD3+CD4+ T cell (OR = 1.092; P = 0.028) were independently associated with the activity of moderate-to-severe TAO patients. The pretreatment CAS-max in both eyes (OR = 7.221; P = 0.013) and the percentage of pretreatment CD3+T cell (OR = 0.718; P = 0.037) were independently associated with therapeutic efficacy. The pretreatment CAS-max in both eyes (OR = 156.53; P = 0.028) and the percentage of post-treatment CD3+T cell (OR = 0.554; P = 0.043) were independently associated with therapeutic efficacy. Besides, multivariable prediction models were established, which were better in the forecasting aspect than single-variable prediction models. Conclusions Based on the findings of this study, we should monitor the peripheral blood T cell subsets for TAO, which could be helpful to timely judge the condition of clinical manifestation and effect of treatment for TAO patients. Multivariable prediction models have been established, which have great significance for clinical work.

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