Sytuacja ekonomiczna w Polsce a epidemiologia zakażeń HIV

Abstract

Introduction: Number of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections may be related to the economic situation of countries. In poorer countries with a high unemployment rate, there are a growing number of social pathologies such as adult and juvenile prostitution, drug addiction, crime, or increased risky sexual behavior. The aim of the study was to evaluate the dynamics of changes in the number of new HIV infections, new acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) cases and AIDS deaths in Poland, in relation to economic factors, and to estimate the trend of new HIV infections in Poland in the next five years. Material and methods: Based on available data on new cases of HIV infections and AIDS cases, AIDS mortality and data on GDP per capita and unemployment rate in Poland in 2004–2016, the correlation analysis was made and trend for new HIV cases in subsequent 5 years was assessed. Results: A statistically significant correlation was found between GDP per capita and new HIV infections (r = 0.869 p < 0.001), not statistically significant correlation for new AIDS cases, and a negative, not statistically significant correlation for AIDS deaths and GPD per capita. The correlation between the unemployment rate and the epidemiological indicators was negative for new HIV infections (r = –0.53 p < 0.063) and weak positive and non-significant correlations for new AIDS and AIDS deaths. Trend analysis of new HIV infections shows an upward tendency in the next 5 years. Conclusion: Growth of gross domestic product per capita and declining unemployment may be one of the factors contributing to the increase in the number of new cases of HIV infections. In the coming years, the number of new HIV infections will be continue increasing.