Systems-of-Systems Analysis of Ballistic Missile Defense Architecture Effectiveness through Surrogate Modeling and Simulation

Abstract

Analysis of a ballistic missile defense (BMD) system effectiveness is limited infidelity due to the inherent complexity of the subject. A BMD battle manager must examine a scenario where many participants interact in a process taking a target from sensor detection through intercept kill. Each participant evolves independently such that the battle management process functions as a true system-of-systems (SoS). Proper SoS analysis requires architecture level engineering, dealing with component functionality allocation and inter-component interaction rather than the internal workings of individual participants. Methods that address BMD effectiveness have been documented, but each sacrifices analysis fidelity of both process elements and individual participants to enable timely decision making. Modeling and simulation (M&S) tools can now be brought forward in architecture level analysis by creating neural network surrogate models of those tools, which are equation representations of those M&S tools which can be executed rapidly with negligible loss in fidelity. Surrogate models were created of a BMD analysis tool including multi-sensor fusion target tracking codes. Results will show the benefit of integrating M&S to architecture level analysis. Specific examples include sensitivity of operational level metrics to formation of an integration tracking picture, and the enabling architecture level decision making.