Systems view of future of wicked problems to be addressed by the Common Agricultural Policy

Abstract

Public policies address societal problems. The problems chased by the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union (EU) have been persistent. The institutional and political economy reasons for this setting have been discussed widely, but the role of the problems lack robust analysis. This study contributes to an explicit understanding of the CAP problems as a system of wicked problems. Wicked problems escape simple and final solutions and form an interconnected ‘jam’, where each resolution generates a cascade of new problems and collateral damages.The CAP problematics are analysed with the systems dynamics methodology, causal loop diagrams. A system of CAP problems was reconstructed based on the content analysis of survey data for 52 Finnish experts, representing various dimensions of the CAP in a balanced manner. Abstraction and categorisation of the 303 listed problems to be addressed by the CAP in the future resulted in 22 key problems under five domains (socio-environmental, spatial, policy, market, farming). The problems formed three agglomerations with reinforcing causal loops: the subsystems of competitiveness, sustainability, and heterogeneity. The full system of CAP problems comprised 114 causal links across all five domains. The problems also had varying positions in the network regarding connectivity and causation. For example, multidimensional sustainable development qualified as the most networked problem, free trade with divergent farming regulations was the most extensively wired driver problem, and competitiveness and incomes in agriculture was the most extensively connected dependent problem. Extending the time horizon from 2020 to 2040 indicates that the negative impact of climate change on food production capacity and food security would accentuate; otherwise, the CAP policy makers would be stuck with, more or less, path-dependent problematics.The results confirm that CAP problems exhibit all ten properties of wicked problems and constitute a tightly wired and evolving complex adaptive system. Solutions to these types of problems should not be chased with a domain-specific approach, as spatial, farming, market, or environmental problems, but rather as networked, driver, dependent, and punctuated problems observing systems dynamics. This problem network status strongly affects the possibilities and feasible means to find better trade-offs between the problems; notably, complete solutions should not be expected due to the systemic and wicked properties of the CAP problems.