Abstract
The authors discuss why the current conceptual base of project management research and practice continues to attract criticism since it does not adequately address the complexity that leads to software-project failure. To do so, the study explores systems thinking and artificial neural networks to shed light on complexity in software-project behavior using nonlinear functional relationships between critical success factors and project success to utilize their connectedness as an approach in order to create project-outcome prediction models. The artificial neural networks were used to create two project-outcome prediction models: one for a binary classification task to discriminate failed from successful projects using a multi-input-single-output configuration and one for a multi-task binary classification to discriminate success from failure in multiple project-success dimensions using a multi-input multi-output configuration. The results yielded high-performance values for a binary classification task, performed to predict overall project success, and slightly lower performance values for the multi-task binary classification, which was also performed to predict success in project-success dimensions. It was found that the nonlinear behavior of critical success factors may be used to create prediction models, by embedding equifinality and connectedness constructs that prove to be useful to understand projects as complex, multi-loop, and nonlinear systems. Further research is needed to investigate the causality between critical success factors in order to explore the possible propagation of critical success factors within a project system network and its implications on project success.
Highlights
The software industry has a history of recording a high rate of failure in projects [1]
The main purpose of this study is to explore the nonlinear behavior of critical success factors (CSFs) to predict the project success of software projects measured as a multidimensional construct, as well as to search for a management tool to balance success across dimensions of software projects
The method applied in the study included conjoint use of expert judgment and non-parametric method to create a multi-organization data set and perform experiments on evaluating CSFs on software projects using a set of ANN models, multidimensional construct (MISO) and multiple project success dimensions in software projects (MIMO)
Summary
The software industry has a history of recording a high rate of failure in projects [1]. Existing research on CSFs, in addition to their categorization for software projects, have focused on recognizing relationships between varied groups of factors and project success [10] as well as on creating contingencyfit models for traditional plan-based and agile. Systems thinking allows for an understanding of the project as an open system of interconnected, technical, and social factors that produce a system's behavior [13]. Such a holistic viewpoint of a projects' definition addresses criticism of closed boundaries and the linear causality present in conventional project management theory. There are, at least three separate dimensions of project success: 1) project management, 2) product and 3) strategic (e.g. [1], [10])
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