Abstract
Ensuring international transport corridors’ safety is essential for countries along the routes. For the sustainable development of international transport channels, this paper discusses how to evaluate the operational risks and how to alleviate the adverse effects caused by emergencies. First, an indicator system of international transport corridors’ operational risks was constructed, which consists of 30 indicators from five dimensions of politics, economy, society, safety, and technology. Secondly, a comprehensive scoring approach combined with a network analysis method was applied to examine the effects caused by operational hazards. On this basis, the quantitative method and rigorous statistical analysis were used to evaluate the China-Pakistan-Iran-Turkey International Transport Corridor in the south line of the Silk Road Economic Belt, whose operational risks from 2010 to 2019 were analyzed. Finally, the operational risk index was discussed in detail. Results demonstrate the following. (1) During the China-Pakistan-Iran-Turkey International Transport Corridor, the Pakistan section has the highest operational risk index, and the next culprit is Turkey, followed by Iran. The Chinese section has the lowest operational risk index. (2) Pakistan has been trapped in severe political risks and security risks in recent years. Turkey suffers from severe security risks due to the Kurdish problem. Iran ranks first in terms of economic risk and social risk. Special attention should be paid to the natural risks for China. (3) Pakistan’s operational risks will exhibit consistently high in the future, while China appears downwards in long-term trend. The operational risk index in Iran is on the rise. Turkey shows a flattening of and then a slight decline in the foreseeable future.
Highlights
International transport corridors have strong strategic and economic attributes, which are responsible for the international trade carriers
Evaluation Methodology of Operational Risks for International Transport Corridors. e international transport corridors’ operational risk index is used to measure the safety condition of an international transport based on a risk assessment framework, reports aggregate, and individual safety indicators for different countries along the route, with five dimensions of political risks, economic risks, social risks, security risks, and technical risks. e total risk index is set to score 100 points, the higher the value, the higher the risk
The political risks’ influences are fatal. e economic risks’ influences are significant which may affect the fund of construction. e safety risks have a vital influence on the construction and normal operation. e social risks’ influences are important. e technical risks’ influences are slight which have less impact on international transportation channels with the progress of human technology
Summary
Systems Evaluation for Operational Risks of International Transport Corridors: A Case Study of China-Pakistan-Iran-Turkey International Transport Corridor. For the sustainable development of international transport channels, this paper discusses how to evaluate the operational risks and how to alleviate the adverse effects caused by emergencies. A comprehensive scoring approach combined with a network analysis method was applied to examine the effects caused by operational hazards On this basis, the quantitative method and rigorous statistical analysis were used to evaluate the China-Pakistan-Iran-Turkey International Transport Corridor in the south line of the Silk Road Economic Belt, whose operational risks from 2010 to 2019 were analyzed. (1) During the ChinaPakistan-Iran-Turkey International Transport Corridor, the Pakistan section has the highest operational risk index, and the culprit is Turkey, followed by Iran. Turkey shows a flattening of and a slight decline in the foreseeable future
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