Systematic review with meta-analysis: prevalent vs. incident oesophageal adenocarcinoma and high-grade dysplasia in Barrett's oesophagus.

Abstract

The proportion of oesophageal adenocarcinoma that is detected concurrently with initial Barrett's oesophagus diagnosis is not well studied. To compare the proportion of prevalent adenocarcinoma vs. incident adenocarcinoma found during surveillance of Barrett's. We performed a systematic search of MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science (from their inception to 31 May 2015) for cohort studies in adults with Barrett's (nondysplastic Barrett's ± Barrett's with low-grade dysplasia) with minimum average follow-up of 3 years, and providing numbers of prevalent adenocarcinoma detected (concurrently with Barrett's diagnosis and up to 1 year afterwards) vs. incident adenocarcinoma detected (greater than 1 year after Barrett's diagnosis). Pooled weighted proportions of prevalent and incident adenocarcinoma were calculated, using a random effects model. On meta-analysis of 13 studies reporting on 603 adenocarcinomas in 9657 Barrett's patients, 85.1% of adenocarcinomas were classified as prevalent [95% confidence interval (CI), 78.1-90.2%) and 14.9% as incident (95% CI, 9.8-21.9%), with substantial heterogeneity (I(2) = 66%). Among nine studies reporting on 787 high-grade dysplasia and oesophageal adenocarcinomas in 8098 Barrett's patients, the proportion of prevalent high-grade dysplasia-oesophageal adenocarcinoma was similar at 80.5% (95% CI, 68.1-88.8%, I(2) = 87%). These results remained stable across multiple subgroup analyses including study quality, setting, duration of follow-up and presence of baseline dysplasia. In our meta-analysis, four of five patients diagnosed with adenocarcinoma or high-grade dysplasia at index endoscopy or within 1 year of Barrett's follow-up were considered to be prevalent cases. Continued efforts are needed to identify patients with Barrett's before the development of adenocarcinoma.