Systematic review and meta-analysis of the prevalence, incidence and treatment outcomes of tuberculosis in Egypt: updated overview.

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality globally. Understanding its epidemiology and burden is critical for targeted interventions. To highlight the prevalence, incidence and treatment outcomes of TB in Egypt during the last 2 decades. For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched Medline/PubMed, ResearchGate, Google Scholar, and Scopus databases. We searched the local databases for unpublished studies, and the reports of international agencies, applying clear inclusion and exclusion criteria. The search covered prevalence; incidence; treatment outcomes; age, gender and residence of patients; and type of TB. Data were analyzed using STATA version 16.0. Pooled estimates with 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated using a random effects model. Odds ratio (OR) with 95% CI was used as effect measures for related variables. Heterogeneity across studies was assessed using the I² statistic with sub-group analysis. A total of 23 studies from 22 governorates, out of 27 governorates, involving a 139 597 study population met the eligibility requirements with no publication bias. The pooled prevalence was 8.70 (95% CI: 5.80-12.41, I² = 92.7%) and the pooled incidence was 9.10 (95% CI: 6.65-14.86, I² = 95.5%) per 100 000 population. About 82.6% of cases showed cured/completed treatment, 4.4% failure of treatment, and 3.9% died. In the subgroup analyses, the odds of TB prevalence were higher among males than females (2.05; 95% CI: 1.44-3.28), among those living in rural than in urban areas (1.29; 95% CI: 0.61-1.97), in Upper Egypt and Greater Cairo than in Lower Egypt and Delta Region (1.85; 95% CI: 0.97-4.15). The odds of pulmonary TB prevalence were higher than the extrapulmonary TB (2.43; 95% CI: 1.63-5.71). The odds of the treatment cases who were cured/completed (1.04; 95% CI: 0.96-1.51), failed (1.71; 95% CI: 1.35-2.73), and died (1.12; 95% CI: 0.87-1.60) were higher in Lower Egypt than in Upper Egypt. TB incidence decreased in Egypt over the last two decades, but treatment outcomes were unsatisfactory, with variations across the different regions. To achieve TB eradication in Egypt, efforts should be made to sustain the TB control strategy by improving treatment outcomes and intensifying case finding and surveillance reporting.