Abstract
Uncertainties associated with evaluated average prompt fission neutron spectra and multiplicities are obtained for a suite of actinides in the Los Alamos model formalism. Systematics for the model input parameters are taken from the literature and used as prior values in a Bayesian updating procedure. Posterior systematics as well as associated posterior uncertainties are inferred. In addition, cross-isotope correlations are evaluated for the first time. The quantification of uncertainties associated with advanced Monte Carlo Hauser-Feshbach calculations of prompt fission neutron spectra is also discussed.
Highlights
Recent years have seen a surge in the interest of quantifying uncertainties associated with evaluated nuclear data
Uncertainties associated with evaluated average prompt fission neutron spectra and multiplicities are obtained for a suite of actinides in the Los Alamos model formalism
The quantification of uncertainties associated with advanced Monte Carlo Hauser-Feshbach calculations of prompt fission neutron spectra is discussed
Summary
Recent years have seen a surge in the interest of quantifying uncertainties associated with evaluated nuclear data. Thanks to ever increasing computing power, running one or a hundred nuclear reaction simulations for data evaluation purposes is achievable by most evaluators. Studying the sensitivity of the results to (modest) changes in model parameter values is possible and provides a relatively straightforward access to evaluated uncertainties (see for example large-scale TALYS runs [1]). Performing large-scale nuclear reaction simulations does not provide fully adequate uncertainties associated with evaluated data. Since an uncertainty is not a physical quantity, but is instead an information on how well we know a physical datum, quantifying this uncertainty requires to assess all sources of uncertainties originating in the evaluation process itself. All the information that entered into the evaluation should be reflected in the associated uncertainty
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