Systematic Makings of Early Stage Hydrogeologic Conceptual Models

Abstract

AbstractTechniques to obtain optimal value from existing hydrogeological information are neglected in many ground water contamination studies, resulting in great costs to the public. Data collection and routine interpretations should not be good enough for hydrogeologists, who should be inherently adept at keen early perspectives and applying useful generalizations. Techniques are available to obtain and explain expanded knowledge from piecemeal and imprecise information at the early stages of site studies. Scarcity of precise data should not be a deterrent. This needed mindset should precede the prevailing mindset of initial collection of extensive new data, followed by data interpretation and mathematical modeling. The existing mindset is often guided by rigid regulations.The procedure of interlocking the past with the present to predict the future through the systematic use of generalizations and retrodictive inferences builds a prior conceptual model explanation (PCME). This early PCME is an organized, mental picture or discernment of a hydrogeological setting displaying three‐dimensional hydrogeologic features, the discernment being capable of explaining in narrative form the general fluid mechanics and contaminant behavior within imprecise but reasonable bounds. This characterization is logically followed by possible cause‐and‐effect relations and predictions of extended consequences of natural and human actions. A site PCME has sound support from the cross‐checking of interrelated factors that leads to almost interlocking proofs.