Systematic Historical Analogue Research for Decision-making (SHARD): Introducing a new methodology for using historical case studies to inform low-carbon transitions

Abstract

Historical research has played an important role in helping researchers and decision makers to understand, plan for, and influence technological transitions towards sustainability. To date, however, this research has often emphasized theory-building over specific present-day relevance. We introduce the SHARD (Systematized Historical Analogue Research for Decision-making) process to address this methodological gap. This is a systematic, transparent, and repeatable process for using history to discover specific, actionable findings about a sustainable target innovation in the present day. SHARD applies a rigorous case selection protocol to select a historical analogue technology with strategic similarity to the target innovation. It also proposes a transparent and repeatable means of researching and developing findings from the historical analogue, to maximize external validity and ensure that it is relevant to present-day decisions. To illustrate the steps in the SHARD methodology, we include a condensed pilot study on how a historical analogue (margarine) can inform the development of a nascent sustainability technology (plant-based meat).