Systematic framework for handling uncertainty in probabilistic failure analysis of corroded concretes

Abstract

Due to ambiguous correlations between input random variables and multi-source uncertainties from the electrochemical model, significant differences between deterministic corrosion prediction models and actual measurements are often observed. A systematic framework of quantification of uncertainties is developed for structures with correlated random variables originated from multiple sources, which allows efficiently estimating the failure probability distribution of the steel corrosion over time considering the randomness of the cover depth, the surface chloride concentration, and the chloride diffusion coefficient. After partitioning correlated random variables into different groups based on their uncertain sources, the Morris one-step-at-a-time and Sobol model is established to rank with respect to the importance of each correlated random variable. Based on polynomial chaos expansions and genetic programming methods, a more condensed set of random variables is created to propagate parametric problems. The unknown probability distribution of the input random variables is formulated by the Markov chain Monte Carlo to realize rigorous uncertainty quantification of the structural reliability. The application of the systematic framework to a set of numerical examples of steel corrosion includes experimental validation and uncertainty quantification and propagation of environmental, material and geometric properties. The results show that the framework can be integrated with parametric electrochemical models to allow robustness and reliability of corrosion prediction.