Systematic errors of the ecmwf operational forecasting model in tropical regions

Abstract

AbstractThe performance of the ECMWF forecasting system in tropical prediction is discussed in terms of objective scores and systematic errors. the temperature, humidity and wind errors appear to be mutually consistent. the forecasts exhibit a cooling in the tropical stratosphere, warming at and below the tropical tropopause and a cooling in the mid and lower tropical troposphere. the analyses appear too humid in the lower troposphere, while the forecasts show a drying. Precipitation and evaporation are both too weak; a new energy balance within the model is slowly established through cooling, this new balance having a reduced total energy (Lq + cqT). the associated wind errors are seen to have a highly baroclinic structure and a meridional extent such as to affect significantly the baroclinicity of the mid‐latitude flow, particularly over the North and South Atlantic. Systematic errors are large compared to the variability of the fields themselves and show a remarkable temporal consistency from month to month.