Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting

Abstract

Abstract : The long-term goals of this project, which is being pursued in collaboration with R. L. Elsberry and M. A. Boothe, are to improve not only the quantitative accuracy of official tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts, but also the qualitative meteorological utility of those forecasts. Needed improvements in the accuracy of official TC track forecasts include: (i) reducing the severity and frequency of major track forecast busts for which the track forecast error at a particular time exceeds seasonal averages by a factor of two or more; (ii) widening the margin by which on average the official TC track forecast improves upon available numerical and other objective TC track forecast guidance; and (iii) better temporal consistency (i.e., watch-to-watch) of official TC track forecasts. Meteorological utility refers to the interpretative usefulness imparted (value added) to the official forecast track by the TC forecaster's formulation and articulation in narrative form of the meteorological reasoning behind the forecast, and should include a situation-specific assessment of the likely uncertainty in the forecast, and the range/probability of alternate scenarios that may be realized. Such reasoning often critically influences recommendations and decisions made by meteorologists and authorities responsible for TC-threatened areas. The long-term goal in this regard is to equip TC forecasters with the conceptual tools necessary to impart a high degree of meteorological utility to each forecast within the constraints of the current state of the science.