Abstract
ABSTRACT The Prince William Sound (PWS) risk assessment was a joint project of Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI), and the George Washington University (GWU). The technique of system simulation developed by GWU was one of three risk analysis methodologies used in the PWS risk assessment. The system simulation methodology is based on the premises that risk is a dynamic property of a system, and that the judgment of experts who have a deep understanding of the system can be used to compensate for incomplete data. The system simulation was used to assess the baseline or current risk in the PWS oil transportation system and to evaluate the effectiveness of potential risk reduction measures. The PWS risk assessment found that current system safeguards effectively address significant system risks, but are not optimal. The dynamic interactions modeled in the simulation demonstrate that actions that reduce risk in one part of the system often increase risk in other parts. The ability to identify and to evaluate these risk tradeoffs is an essential element of risk management. The PWS risk assessment identified specific interventions that could increase the level of safety of oil transportation in Prince William Sound.
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