Abstract
The article is devoted to the problem of improving the system of forecasting tax revenues in Ukraine. Forecasting tax revenues in the budget system is a key tool for implementing the state tax policy. This process represents a systematic work on the calculation of tax revenues for the future. The purpose of tax forecasts is to identify, for a certain time period, tax revenues, taking into account their economically justified level.The author proved that this sphere of public administration and economic-analytical practice requires improvement, taking into account progressive developments, which proved their effectiveness in the western countries. The analysis of the forecasting errors of the main budget-generating taxes in Ukraine is carried out by comparing the forecast indicator at the end of the period (taking into account changes that were made during the budget year) with actual values.The article describes the method of forecasting tax revenues. In the given model the level of VAT is influenced by GDP growth, the national currency rate and the growth of VAT in the previous period. The individuals' income depends on the growth of GDP, the dynamics of the national currency rate and the growth of VAT, on the dynamics of excise tax. As for the corporate income tax, it is influenced by the growth of the national currency, the growth of VAT, while this indicator is related to GDP.The method of forecasting tax revenues proposed provides more accurate forecast data than the officially approved Method for predicting budget revenues, which gives grounds for considering it as a promising forecasting tool that deserves further study and improvement.
Highlights
The use of statistical methods of tax forecasting is recommended
We can conclude that the above methodology provides a more accurate forecast of tax revenues than the methodology currently used in Ukraine
This approach has the right to exist, certainly, the methodical apparatus itself of this methodology should be improved, and the results obtained through its custody should be further verified, in particular, these results should be checked with inclusion in the model of additional factors influencing the dynamics of tax revenues
Summary
In determining the amount of tax and non-tax revenues, as well as production volumes for the forecast of GDP dynamics, as the dependence of the country's economy on many internal and external factors should be reflected in the model, taking into account the seasonality, cyclicality and uncertainty of growth, as well as the amounts of deductions to the budgets of the respective levels, which the additive model allows to model and analyze It will use and transform the exponential trend into a linear, and multiplicative seasonality into an additive, which will make it possible to construct a model without complex calculations, and most importantly, with greater accuracy of the forecast [21].
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