System of Factors for Sustainable Economic Development: Globalization, Diversification, Security

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of the chapter is to fill the identified gap by determining the impact of the system of key factors of the economy—globalization, diversification and security—on sustainable development, identifying the preferred directions for managing these factors and predicting their impact on the modern economy until 2030. Design/Methodology/Approach The research is based on the scripting method using the following algorithm. At the first stage, regression dependencies of manifestations of sustainable development on new factors of sustainable economic development are determined. At the second stage, automatic forecasts of changes in values of factor variables for the period until 2030 are made. At the third stage, scenarios of sustainable development of the economy are compiled depending on the influence of the selected factors on it, and the probability of their implementation is determined. Both developed countries (G7 example) and developing countries (BRICS example) have been selected as targets for the study to obtain a representative sample. Findings The research revealed that the systemic influence of the new—globalization, diversification and security—due to the challenges of our time, determines the negative realistic (most likely: 22.50%) scenario of sustainable development of the world economy for the period until 2030, which implies a decrease in the value of the global competitiveness index by 3.78%, economic growth rate—by 48.85%, GDP per capita—by 15.21% and the sustainable development index—by 0.04%. Originality/Value It is proved that an optimistic scenario of economic growth rate is quite likely (12.75%) providing an increase in the value of the global competitiveness index by 22.47%,—by 45.2%, GDP per capita—by 126.76% and the sustainable development index—by 8.13%. The control values of the factor variables required to implement the optimistic scenario are specified.