Abstract
Whether applying to individual countries or unions, the comparability of statistical indicators and their compliance with contemporary international initiatives is a serious problem. In particular, analysis of the macroeconomic indicators used for assessing the sustainability of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries has shown that they do not reflect the actual situation. In this regard, the creation of a unified system of indicators for determining the socio-economic sustainability of EAEU member states — as well as the EAEU as a whole — becomes an urgent task. Therefore, the present study aims to refine the system for measuring the socio-economic sustainability of the Eurasian space and develop recommendations for the selection of key parameters. By comparing socio-economic sustainability indicators published by international organisations (UNECE, OECD, Eurostat, CIS Statistical Committee) in the context of the development strategies of individual EAEU countries and the Union as a whole, the authors distinguish between basic and extended indicator types. Basic indicators comprise: the annual consolidated budget deficit; general government debt; annualised inflation rate; contribution of high-tech and knowledge-intensive industries to gross domestic product (GDP); contribution of innovative goods and services to total industrial exports; growth index of the proportion of reconstruction and modernisation investment to total capital investment; fertility rate; life expectancy at birth; poverty rate. Extended indicators include: GDP; economic growth; main international trade; external and national balance of payments; social. The applicability and relevance of the proposed system for measuring the socio-economic sustainability of the Eurasian space is confirmed by statistical analysis of EAEU member state data (including correlation analysis). The results showed that the presented system of indicators reflects the actual development of the EAEU countries, contributing to informed decision-making both at the level of the EAEU member states and at the level of the Union as a whole.
Highlights
Ключевые слова: Евразийское пространство, оценка устойчивости развития, макроэкономические показатели, динамика ВВП, технологическое развитие, социальная сфера, качество жизни, бедность, демографическое развитие, рождаемость
Analysis of the macroeconomic indicators used for assessing the sustainability of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries has shown that they do not reflect the actual situation
The present study aims to refine the system for measuring the socio-economic sustainability of the Eurasian space and develop recommendations for the selection of key parameters
Summary
System for Measuring the Socio-Economic Sustainability of the Eurasian Economic Union. Analysis of the macroeconomic indicators used for assessing the sustainability of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries has shown that they do not reflect the actual situation. Что система показателей устойчивости социально-экономического развития ЕАЭС должна отвечать основным стратегическим направлениям развития евразийской экономической интеграции 2, ориентирам макроэкономической политики стран ЕАЭС 3. Устойчивость социально-экономического развития в данном случае увязывается с некими уровневыми ориентирами / эталонами / плановыми значениями, которые позволяют дать качественную характеристику состояния дел на конкретный период времени, установить относительную успешность / эффективность функционирования экономики (проводимой экономической политики). Синтезируя и обобщая сказанное, авторы определяют устойчивость социально-экономического развития ЕАЭС как многогранную характеристику, отражающую при соответствии показателей пороговым значениям, определенным с учетом выполнения условия достижения динамичного развития экономики, высокотехнологичного производства, других сфер и видов экономической деятельности, а также повышения качества жизни населения, низкую их вариабельность на протяжении длительного периода времени
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