System dynamics simulation follow-up fuzzy cognitive map for investigating the effect of risks on relief in crisis management

Abstract

Given the significant threat posed by natural disasters like earthquakes to communities, it is important to assess the associated risks beforehand in order to minimize human and financial losses. This study focuses on identifying existing risks caused by an earthquake crisis by designing a network that evaluates its impact on urban infrastructure. The resulting system dynamics simulation model was used to analyze the frequency of different hazards and estimate the amount of relief goods needed in eight earthquake scenarios. The Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) technique was also employed to determine the weight, impact, and effectiveness of each hazard, thus allowing for a ranking of the earthquake crisis scenarios based on their severity. FCM evaluation results showed that the most important and influential risks in an earthquake crisis were fire (with a weight value of 0.124), damage to first-class buildings (0.099), lack of hospital capacity (0.096), and damage to the power grid (0.095). Furthermore, it was observed that mitigating or eliminating the most significant risks would lead to a significant decrease in the demand for relief goods in each scenario. In fact, by addressing the top three earthquake risks, the demand for medicine reduced by 147%. Finally, the ranked results of the earthquake scenarios indicate that fire (with an impact of 12%), damage to the water network, and lack of capacity in relief centers (both with an impact of 6%) are the most and least effective risks, respectively.