System dynamics simulation and scenario optimization of China's water footprint under different SSP-RCP scenarios

Abstract

Under the dual influence of socioeconomic development and climate change, water resources in China are under increasing stress. It is of great significance to comprehensively explore the changing trend of China's water footprint (WF) in the future, clarify the water resource challenges that China will face, and alleviate water shortage and water pollution problems. This paper uses System Dynamics (SD) to build a simulation model of China's WF, calculate China's WF from 2000 to 2019, and for the first time, simulate and optimize China's WF from 2020 to 2050 under the SSP-RCP scenario matrix composed of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are as follows. (1) From 2000 to 2019, China's WF increased to 2009 and began to decline. The main contributors are grey WF and agricultural WF. (2) During 2020–2050, China's total WF under the SSP1-2.6 scenario will always be at the lowest; compared with other scenarios, the simulation result of China's total WF under the SSP2-4.5 scenario is the closest to the actual situation in China in 2020, 2021 and 2022. China's total WF under the SSP4-6.0 scenario is close to that under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, but the numerical variation characteristics of the WF composition are different. China's total WF under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios is high. (3) Based on the changes in WF and water resources supply/demand ratio under different scenarios, the SSP1-2.6 scenario is the best scenario to mitigate a future water shortage and water pollution in China. The research results can help decision-makers formulate relevant management policies and socioeconomic development models for water resource utilization and provide decision support for alleviating water shortages and water pollution in China.