System dynamics of information technology adoption in a complex environment

Abstract

The diffusion and adoption of information technology (IT) innovations is a complex process involving three main interacting actors: 1) promoters, who facilitate technology adoption; 2) inhibitors, who oppose the adoption process; 3) imitators who are influenced by both promoters and inhibitors. In such a complex environment, decision making for technology management is complex. As such, in-depth understanding of the dynamics of technology adoption is imperative. In this research, we develop a system dynamics model to capture the interactive dynamics of IT adoption in a complex environment involving promoters, inhibitors and imitators. We investigate, via simulation, the behaviour of a typical diffusion and adoption process, drawing useful managerial insights relevant for policy makers. Simulation results show that complex dynamics affect the peak adoption rate, the peak adoption time, and the overall shape of the diffusion curve. ‘What-if’ analyses provide further insights into policy design and evaluatio...