Abstract
BackgroundDogs are important reservoirs of rabies, a zoonotic viral encephalitis that kills thousands of people in Asia and Africa annually. Mass dog vaccination is recommended for the prevention of rabies in both humans and dogs. Mass vaccinations should be conducted annually but more frequent campaigns may be required in areas with high dog turnover rates. Consequently, a good understanding of dog demography is essential for the control of the disease. The aim of this study was to explore the effect of dog demography on rabies vaccination coverage following a mass vaccination campaign with at least 70% vaccination coverage.Methodology/Principal findingsA dog population model was constructed to explore the effect of dog demography on rabies vaccination coverage decline. Important model parameters were identified through a comprehensive literature search on dog demography in Africa. A system dynamics approach was adopted to build a dog population model to simulate the effects of demographic processes on rabies vaccination coverage. Vensim PLE Plus software was used to construct the model. Multivariate sensitivity simulations using data from 22 studies and 12 African countries were performed to investigate the effect of dog turnover rates on vaccination coverage decline. In addition, an adjusted vaccination coverage to estimate the proportion of vaccinated dogs with adequate immunity at 12 months post-vaccination was calculated. The results demonstrated that the vaccination coverage and adjusted vaccination coverage remained over 30% and 20% respectively at 12 months if annual mass vaccinations achieved at least 70% coverage.Conclusions/SignificanceThe results demonstrated that annual mass vaccination campaigns with at least 70% vaccination coverage would maintain a herd immunity of 20‒45% between campaigns.
Highlights
Rabies is a viral encephalitis transmitted through the saliva of an infected animal [1]
The results demonstrated that annual mass vaccination campaigns with at least 70% vaccination coverage would maintain a herd immunity of 20–45% between campaigns
Policy decisions on rabies vaccination campaigns require an understanding of dog demography and how demographic processes interact
Summary
Rabies is a viral encephalitis transmitted through the saliva of an infected animal [1]. Rabies accounts for up to 55, 000 human deaths annually and the most affected areas are Asia and Africa [5]. The level of vaccination coverage is thought to vary depending on the demographic characteristics of the population [6,7]. Antibody titres of vaccinated dogs in Africa vary with some animals failing to seroconvert 30 days after vaccination [10,11]. Some animals develop antibodies 30–35 days post-vaccination that decline 60–180 days after vaccination [12,11]. Dogs are important reservoirs of rabies, a zoonotic viral encephalitis that kills thousands of people in Asia and Africa annually. Mass vaccinations should be conducted annually but more frequent campaigns may be required in areas with high dog turnover rates. The aim of this study was to explore the effect of dog demography on rabies vaccination coverage following a mass vaccination campaign with at least 70% vaccination coverage
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