System Dynamics Modeling Strategy for Civil Construction Projects: The Concept of Successive Legislation Periods

Abstract

Cost and time performance are considered to be the most important aspects in the construction industry. The exceptional conditions that took place in Iraq since the beginning of the third millennia had a huge vicious impact on the cost and time performance of local construction projects. This may represent the principal motivation for the local authorities to enact some four successive legislations in order to control the performance of the construction industry. In this research, an evaluation is made to the cost and time performance of local construction projects and their variation due to the multiple changes in the internal factors that affect project performance, and changes in the surrounding events include legislative, economic, and security environment during the period that lasted from 2003 to 2014. Data is collected from 30 governmental projects to conduct the evaluation. A comprehensive questionnaire is performed to estimate a quantitative value for the impact of several factors that concern both the owner and the contractor, with special consideration to their variation through the successive legislation periods. These estimates are, in turn, utilized in a system dynamics model, in which the project development process is simulated. The final cost and duration changes in the project are accumulated in the form of stocks to give an indication of the cost and time performance of the project. The developed model returned a progressive reduction of 10.9% for the change in project cost and 135.37% for the change in project schedule throughout the eleven years period.