System Dynamics Modeling of the Construction Supply Chain in Industrial Modularized Construction Projects

Abstract

Modeling the construction supply chain has been a challenge as the construction supply chain is a complex and dynamic ecosystem. To understand the variable and volatile nature of construction, this study developed a system dynamic model to simulate the influences of three key factors, scope changes, requests for information, and rework, on project duration. This study reviewed the latest literature, examined the typical modularized heavy industrial construction projects, sketched a causal loop diagram, developed a system dynamics model, and performed model verification and validation. The simulation results for a simple construction project with artificial input revealed that the three identified factors significantly influenced the project duration against the initial planned project duration. The proposed system dynamics model (1) simulates the multi-stakeholder construction supply chain as a holistic ecosystem; (2) quantifies the impact resulting from inefficient information flows on project duration; and (3) forecasts the project duration given these factors.