Abstract
System Dynamics Modeling of Chinese Urban Housing Markets for Pedagogical and Policy Analysis Purposes
Highlights
The past generation has witnessed in China the greatest urbanization in world history to date
The results show that the basic system dynamics (SD) model translated from D-W model does not fully explain the historical housing price of City A
When we apply the historical dataset to the integrated model with only land financing scheme incorporated, the price trend shifted from cyclic behavior to an increasingly rising pattern
Summary
The past generation has witnessed in China the greatest urbanization in world history to date. The result will be a tremendous increase in demand, in terms of the quantity and the quality of urban housing. This will include renovation and redevelopment as well as new stock built on greenfield sites. It is impressive that Chinese cities have, for the most part, accommodated this unprecedented demand China has achieved this in part through flexible adaptation of the policy framework governing the housing industry. Most notably, it has transitioned from the previous centrally planned social housing system to a largely market-driven system, based on the sale of long-term land leaseholds from local government authorities to private developers. The developers produce the housing, largely units for owner-occupancy, as well as other types of buildings
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