System Dynamics Model on Retention of STEM Undergraduates

Abstract

The projected shortage of engineering talent in the U.S. may impede the nation's ability to remain competitive amid global technological advancements. Lowering the high attrition rates of college-level science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) programs could be key to addressing this shortage. This paper applies a novel system dynamics approach to analyze factors affecting retention in undergraduate STEM programs, and evaluates the impact of potential policy interventions on STEM student retention. A general model on the engineering talent flow at the post high school to college level was constructed and verified and calibrated using data from the High School Longitudinal Survey 2009. Instantiations of this model were then implemented to evaluate the impact of potential policy interventions (e.g., tuition rates, student support services, scholarships) on STEM degree attainment, including by student demographic groups. The results demonstrate the system dynamics models' potential to provide useful insights on the impact of policy interventions in the context of complex dynamics.