System Dynamics in the Combination of Conventional and Traditional Chinese Medicine in the Dynamics of Contagion, Treatment and Cure in the SARS Covid-19

Abstract

In recent history, humanity is experiencing a confrontation with an invisible enemy, the Covid-19 virus. Even with all the technological resources available, man found himself powerless and thousands of lives have already been lost. It turns out that different ways of coping with the pandemic have obtained different results in terms of effectiveness in reducing the number of deaths. In this sense, the objective of this article is to represent the dynamics of coping with the SARS Covid-19 pandemic with the simulation of scenarios that used Conventional Medicine combined or not with Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM). The method employed was a mathematical simulation model of system dynamics developed based on 12 randomized controlled clinical studies. The model was used to test four policies to mitigate the effects of Covid-19: i) adequate treatment conditions combining the two techniques; ii) reductions in the administration fee and time of using the TCM; iii) total withdrawal of treatment with TCM and iv) no treatment. The results demonstrates the main actions in the fight against Covid-19, with the invasion of the virus, the compromise of the patient, the defenses and behavior of the organism and the treatment actions only with conventional medicine or combined with traditional Chinese medicine. Thus, the model allows reflecting on how and when to use the available resources, in addition to exploring a new tool in terms of Western science, respecting the very limits that the model provides. Furthermore, this model provides health professionals and scientists with a tool that allows them to dynamically monitor real-time scenarios and simulate future situations regarding decision-making in events that need to be analyzed immediately, such as pandemic and epidemic situations.