System dynamics characterisation and synthesis of floating photovoltaics in terms of energy, environmental and economic parameters with WELF nexus sustainability features

Abstract

The invention of floatovoltaic technologies brought new meaning to the theoretical framing of sustainability as the technology delivers extended natural resource conservation benefits. However, planning assessments for this novel sustainable energy technology exposed knowledge gaps jeopardising global financial investments and regulatory approvals. Knowledge and methodological gaps cause inaccurate performance predictions in current geospatial-engineering modelling tools and fail to adequately quantify the diverse range of layered performance qualities and impacts of floating photovoltaics. This paper advances a geo-sensitive system dynamics framework to systemically integrate the energy, environmental and economic domain object functions in characterising the behaviour and sustainability of floating photovoltaic systems theoretically. The framework serves as computer logic in a geospatial digital twin to synthesise floatovoltaic operations to predict the technology’s sustainability impact and offset attributes in balanced scorecard metrics and water–energy–land–food nexus indicators. Experimental evaluations with the proposed framework in a real-world setting demonstrate the value of the holistically integrated framework in analytical floatovoltaic project appraisal and planning support. The results highlight significant advantages when comparing a 1000 m2 floatovoltaic system with a similar-sized conventional photovoltaic alternative, including a 19.3% lifetime energy gain, a carbon emission displacement of CO2e=5168t and a freshwater evaporation benefit of 983 kL. Predictive energy, environmental and economic modelling also offers water–energy–land–food–resource analysis parameters, thus delivering multi-attribute performance profiles that solve many of the current problems with the “technology unknowns” of floatovoltaics that impede energy project commissioning and licensing approvals.