System Dynamics Based Analysis of Oil and Gas Supply Chain Disruptions During COVID-19

Abstract

COVID-19 has shocked global humanity and forced the world for continued lockdown and sudden economic turmoil. The oil and gas (O&G) sectors have experienced a nearly catastrophic besides undergoing supply–demand stalemate and free fall of crude price. Such an unbalance has impacted the supply chain of the O&G industry, having diverse <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">“Hotspots</i> .” Besides the growth of green energy, the oil sector contributes significantly to the energy security for the majority of the countries. Hence, the O&G sector needs to consider resilience strategies against such hotspots critically. This article has identified such critical hotspots and analyzed their moderation by developing a Systems Thinking for Education and Research software model with system dynamics (SD) approach. The SD model is simulated with the data input of crude price, forecast demand, and strategy for the upcoming fiscal years. The Indian O&G sector is chosen as a case study; however, globally, the uniformity of the O&G supply chain could be effectively applied. The results indicate a drastic decline in production, revenue, sustainability, and net profits, though the critical resilience strategies are suggested. Despite a comprehensive exhibit of difficulties, the oil industry is expected to stay innovative, resilient, and compelling and eventually balances the slump as economic situations improve.