System Dynamics Approach to TALC Modeling

Marko Hell,Lidija Petrić

doi:10.3390/su13094803

Abstract

The system dynamics applied in this research on modeling a tourist destination (area) life cycle (TALC) contributes to understanding its behavior and the way that information feedback governs the use of feedback loops, delays and stocks and flows. On this basis, a system dynamic three-staged TALC model is conceptualized, with the number of visitors V as an indicator of the carrying capacities’ dynamics and the flow function V(t) to determine the TALC stages. In the first supply-dominance stage, the model indicated that arrivals are growing until the point of inflexion. After this point, arrivals continue growing (but with diminishing growth rates), indicating the beginning of the demand-dominance stage, ending up with the saturation point, i.e., the maximum number of visitors. The simulated TALC system dynamics model was then applied to five EU destinations (Living Labs) to explain their development along the observed period (2007–2019). The analysis revealed that all observed Living Labs reached the second lifecycle stage, with one entered as early as in 2015 and another in 2018. Lifecycle stage durations may significantly differ across the destinations, as do the policies used either to prevent stagnation or to restructure the offer to become more sustainable and resilient.

Highlights

Tourism and a tourist destinations are researched from many standpoints and by many scientific disciplines
The number of visitors V is observed in the period from 2007 to 2019 and collected at at the level of the 27 Local Administrative Units (LAUs), belonging to five EU countries, the level of the 27 Local Administrative Units (LAUs), belonging to five EU countries, being the partners in the HORIZON 2020 SmartCulTour project this research leans on, i.e., being the partners in the HORIZON 2020 SmartCulTour project this research leans on, i.e., Belgium, Spain, Croatia, Italy, and Netherlands (Table 1)
The LAUs belong to the areas delineated as Living Labs (LL), indicating territories where different stakeholders delineated as Living Labs (LL), indicating territories where different stakeholders can co-operate, co-create and co-manage tourism development

Summary

Introduction

Tourism and a tourist destinations are researched from many standpoints and by many scientific disciplines. Most of them have generally taken a reductionist approach, with both tourist destinations and tourism not effectively understood as complex phenomena [1]. A tourist destination (be it a community, a region or a country) encompasses numerous directly and indirectly involved stakeholders acting interdependently with nonlinear interactions, which is why it is considered a complex adaptive system, whose dynamical behavior is best-delineated using chaos and complexity frameworks [3]. As stressed by Olmedo and Mateos [4], after seminal papers by Faulkner and Valerio [5] and Parry and Drost [6], only a few papers have applied chaos and complexity concepts in the tourism/tourist destination-related literature, with not many more up to the recent period. Sedarati et al [7] indicate that a systematic literature review of the papers dealing with tourism from the system’s dynamics perspective revealed only 27 published from 1994 to 2015, addressing six different categories, being: multisector, attractions, adventure and outdoor recreation, transportation, accommodation and events

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Conclusion