System Dynamics and Graphical Interface Modeling of a Fig-Derived Micro-Producer Factory

Abstract

This study started from a fig-derived product project in the 2022–2026 Strategic Plan from Sonora, Mexico, to develop technological solutions in complex environments and provide a global panorama from the industry to the prevailing situation in Valle del Mayo. A technological solution is based on a graphical interface to support decision-making in fig supply, production and distribution in the administration process, given that the main problem has been the lack of a processing plant with a sustainable approach. Four options were set up for nine producers—figs in syrup, dehydrated, marmalade, compost—based on the system dynamics methodology to solve the problem of factory installation. Six stages were followed: (1) mapping the system to determine variables and parameters; (2) constructing the causal diagram; (3) developing the flow and level diagram and model equations; (4) simulating and validating the current model; (5) designing policies and evaluating scenarios using a multi-criteria analysis; and (6) developing the graphical interface. The main conclusions show that fig-derived products and their distribution can feature in diverse markets in a graphics environment supported by complex mathematical models in the supply chain along with the capacity to generate income into utilities to support the decision of the physical factory prior to important investments.