Abstract
In order to systematically analyze the benefits of transit metropolis construction, the system dynamics (SD) theory was used to construct the transit metropolis SD simulation model from the four subsystems of economy, society, environment, and transportation supply and demand. The validity of the SD model was verified by the social and economic data of Nanchang City and the operational data of the bus company, and the quantitative simulation analysis was carried out by taking the construction of the transit metropolis in Nanchang as an example. The simulation results show that, in 2020, the number of motor vehicles in Nanchang will reach 1.13 million and the urban population will reach 5.71 million. It is necessary to build a transit metropolis for the sustainable development of urban transportation. In order to complete the transit metropolis creation goal of 60% of the public transit mobility sharing rate, the proportion of public transport investment in the total transportation investment needs to be adjusted from 0.25 to 0.35. As a result, Nanchang City will improve after the peak traffic congestion in 2022, indicating that the construction of the transit metropolis will have a positive effect on Nanchang. By developing new energy vehicles and low-emission vehicles, vehicle emissions will drop from 0.05 tons/year to 0.04 tons/year, and overall nitrogen oxide emissions will fall by 70%, which is significant for urban environments. The research results provide theoretical support for the significance of transit metropolis construction, and promote the sustainable development of urban transportation.
Highlights
With the rapid development of China’s economy, society, and urbanization, the number of motor vehicles has increased dramatically, bringing urban traffic problems such as traffic congestion, traffic accidents and environmental pollution [1]
As an urban transportation strategy adopted in response to the rapid growth of cars and traffic congestion, the transit metropolis will promote the priority of public transportation and sustainable development of urban transportation in China to a new level
The state variables in the model, road length and vehicle ownership, are the main variables; (2) These two variables have historical data that can be compared; (3) In the process of system dynamics simulation, according to the index interference level and the cyclic process, these variables are the center of the simulation process and are important factors affecting the change of the parking rate
Summary
With the rapid development of China’s economy, society, and urbanization, the number of motor vehicles has increased dramatically, bringing urban traffic problems such as traffic congestion, traffic accidents and environmental pollution [1]. Determining public transport priority as a national level development strategy is the subject of Circular no. 64, issued by the State Council in 2012, titled “Guiding Opinions on Urban Priority Development of Public Transport.”. A city formally wins the honorary title of National Transit Metropolis Demonstration City only after at least five years of the creation and successful completion of the creation goals proposed in the application. As an urban transportation strategy adopted in response to the rapid growth of cars and traffic congestion, the transit metropolis will promote the priority of public transportation and sustainable development of urban transportation in China to a new level. If the establishment of a transit metropolis is completed, how much will it promote the sustainable development of urban transportation? How to systematically evaluate the role of a transit metropolis in promoting sustainable development of urban transportation? If the establishment of a transit metropolis is completed, how much will it promote the sustainable development of urban transportation? How to systematically evaluate the role of a transit metropolis in promoting sustainable development of urban transportation? All the questions are worth exploring
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