Abstract
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to estimate the changes of dental caries status among Thai adults and elderly under the different policy options using system dynamics modeling. Design/methodology/approach A multi-sector system dynamics model was developed to capture the dynamic interrelationship between dental caries status changes and oral health behavior – including self-care, dental care utilization and sugar consumption. Data used to populate the model was obtained from the Thai national oral health survey in 2000, 2006, 2012 and Thailand Official Statistics Registration. Three policy scenarios were experimented in the model: health promotion policy, dental personnel policy and affordable dental care service policy. Findings Dental caries experiences among Thai adults and elderly were projected to increase from now to 2040, as the elderly population increases. Among all policies experimented herein, the combined policies of health promotion, increased affordability and capacity of dental health service were found to produce the highest improvement in dental caries status with 3.7 percent reduction of population with high decayed, missing and filled teeth (DMFT) and 5.2 percent increase in population with very low DMFT. Originality/value This study is the first comprehensive simulation model that attempts to explore the dynamic interrelationship among dental caries experiences and behavioral factors that impact on oral health outcomes. In addition, the simulation model herein offers a framework for policy experimentation that provides policymakers with additional insights to inform health policy planning.
Highlights
Dental caries is a major public health problem among the adults and the elderly, in developing countries of a nation’s population
The aim of this study was to estimate the changes in dental caries status among Thai adults and elderly under the different policy options using system dynamics modeling
Under the health promotion scenario, by 2040 (Table I), the number of individuals with very low DMFT is projected to increase by 0.3m, while that for low, moderate and high DMFT is projected to decrease by 0.03m, 0.02m and 0.2m, compared to the base-case scenario
Summary
Dental caries is a major public health problem among the adults and the elderly, in developing countries of a nation’s population. In Thailand, the prevalence of dental caries among the population aged 15 years, 35–44 years and 60–74 years increased from 62.1 to. © Nipaporn Urwannachotima, Piya Hanvoravongchai, John Pastor Ansah and Piyada Prasertsom. The full terms of this licence may be seen at http://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
