System dynamical simulation of risk perception for enterprise decision-maker in communication of chemical incident risks

Abstract

Risk communication is an effective way to understand, assess and manage risk of chemical industrial parks, a process which requires the involvement of stakeholders. However, different risk perceptions may cause sorts of barriers formed in risk communication, sometimes resulting in mass confrontation incidents. Enterprise decision-makers play a key role in this process and further risk decision-making. To study the changes of risk perception of enterprise decision-maker in the face of incidents in chemical industry parks, two main dynamic sequence “risk perception – risk perspective – risk response – risk communication – risk perception” and “Risk perception → Real-time risk information →Safety education →Risk experience → Risk perception” are adopted to form causality feedback loops based on system dynamics theory. System dynamics models are established to interpret the mechanism of subjective process and achieve quantitative simulation value of key state variables of risk perception, risk perspective, risk communication and risk response. Through explanation and sensitive analysis of simulation results, some relationships among state variables of risk perception, risk perspective, risk communication and risk response are obtained to prove the rationality of models. The results show that the diversification of psychological activities can be reflected by the simulated data and images, which has practical significance for decision-making among different groups of people.