Abstract
Cruise tourism is an emerging tourism industry. Under the current online consumer market, expanding the number of online customers is an important consideration for the sound development of cruise tourism, starting from the reality of cruise travel, integrating life cycle theory, demand theory, and network consumption behavior theory, defining the evolution model of customer life cycle, using system dynamics for simulation analysis to discover the dynamic changes in the number of cruise travel online customers in different life periods. The analysis of the simulation results found that at different stages of the life cycle evolution of cruise travel network customers, travel demand is comprehensively affected by various factors such as basic needs, novelty, offline experience, Internet word‐of‐mouth, and information quality. The number of potential customers first accelerates and then declines. The trend is flat, the number of waiting customers is normally distributed over time, and the number of existing customers and lost customers tends to stabilize after an accelerated increase. The simulation results with word‐of‐mouth factor as the test function show that the model has good robustness and sensitivity. The number of waiting customers is sensitive to changes in word‐of‐mouth impact factors, and the number of existing customers has not increased significantly. Finally, summarize the development strategies of cruise tourism from the perspective of life cycle: increase the promotion of cruise tourism network and expand the range of potential customers, highlight the characteristic orientation of cruise tourism differentiation, induce waiting for customers to pay online, improve the quality of cruise tourism experience and maintain existing customer loyalty, and optimize the quality of travel information on the online platform to attract lost customers to turn back.
Highlights
Cruise ships in foreign countries can be traced back to the beginning of the 19th century and have a history of more than a hundred years, but they are new things in China and belong to the field of emerging industries [1]
Under extreme conditions and sudden changes in word-of-mouth variables, the changes produced by the model and the actual system behavior are consistent, and the reason for the change can be found, indicating that the simulation model established in this paper can simulate the life cycle process of cruise travel network customers
The simulation results of the model and the response analysis of the test function found that the cruise travel online customers showed different quantitative characteristics in the potential stage, waiting stage, current stage, and lost stage of the life cycle, and the evolutionary development of potential customers, waiting customers, and lost customers is significantly affected by online travel information, while existing customers are mainly affected by the real experience of cruise travel
Summary
Cruise ships in foreign countries can be traced back to the beginning of the 19th century and have a history of more than a hundred years, but they are new things in China and belong to the field of emerging industries [1]. Both the customer satisfaction rate and the revisit rate get the highest scores [3] Cruise travel has such a high satisfaction rate and return rate, which has a lot to do with the cruise ship’s ability to provide different levels of travel services. Cruise travel has such factors as leisure atmosphere, exotic destinations, entertainment and food on board, status symbols, and cruise appearance. It can meet the travel needs of customers at different levels. This article selects online customers as the research object, uses demand theory and life cycle theory, combines the differences between online consumption and traditional consumption, and constructs demand-led system dynamics for the life cycle evolution process of cruise travel online customers from initial stage to maturity to exit Model, and perform simulation analysis to evaluate the demand and quantity change characteristics of online customers in the life cycle evolution process, so as to provide enlightenment for the maintenance of cruise travel online customers
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