System dynamic modelling of electricity planning and climate change in West Africa.

Abstract

Background: It is imperative to develop an efficient strategic approach to managing the push-pull factor in economic development, particularly as relates to climate change and energy interactions in the West African Region. This article demonstrates the use of System Dynamics Modelling (SDM) for that purpose; to manage the development of energy growth with reduced impact in regards to climate change. The complexities of energy planning in relation to climate change necessitates the need for the tool to examine low carbon economy mixed with traditional approaches of planning. Methods: Vensim DSS version 6.2 was used to develop the model. WAPP member country level data elicited from WAPP and ECOWAS Regional Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERERA) serves as the set of basic data used to develop and run the main model. These were complemented with other data elicited from various journal articles and internet sources. These include population and its average growth rate, GDP, per capita income, average per capita electricity demand, electricity generated, average electricity tariff, generation technology type, amongst others. Results: SDM demonstrates the capability to understand the theoretical frame for trade-offs between economic development and climate change, by handling the nonlinear relationship between generation adequacy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction for better targeted strategic regional intervention on climate change. Conclusion: The primary goal of this paper was to demonstrate the use of SDM to aid in resource planning in an inexpensive way to examine low carbon pathway. With the SDM, the goal of low carbon pathway in the energy system was achieved without the cost of controlled trials.