System Dynamic Modeling: A Case Study of a Hotel Food Supply Chain

Abstract

However, a closer examination reveals that many firms are battling inventory bottleneck as the covid pandemic spike in demand converges, which results in unpredictability and unstable sale fluctuation. This situation forced the hotel industry to find a balance between fulfilling demand and inventory turnover, which is impossible to predict accurately. Therefore, this research aims to combine system dynamics modelling with a hotel food supply chain system to solve the unpredictability of supply chain dynamics. In addition, The Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) and Stock and Flow Diagram (SFD) are used in this study to model the complexity of the case study supply chain, with an objective model to minimize the instability of inventory turnover and to stabilize the sales movement. This study proposes five policy scenario simulations where standard deviation (SD) and Standard of Error (SE) are used as the decision-making parameters. The simulation result suggests that the fifth scenario provides the highest SD (49.484) and the lowest SE (6.336). Therefore, controlling the customer response time variable to a maximum of 25 minutes and the menu unavailability variable to 15 occurrences per week will result in higher stability of the case study inventory turnover.