System comprehensive risk assessment of urban rainstorm–induced flood-water pollution disasters

Abstract

The urban rainstorm-induced flood-water pollution disaster is a kind of systematic risk, which may induce secondary disasters that can lead to more serious damage, so this paper first adopts the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to determine the flood risk by combining with the submergence depth derived from the risk field and other factors data, and then the grid environmental risk evaluation method, which is improved by increasing the induced possibility based on Bayesian theory, is used to evaluate the flood-induced water pollution risk, and the system comprehensive risk of rainstorm-induced flood-water pollution disasters is finally obtained by constructing risk level matrix, which can well depict the coupling superposition effect. Shenzhen City is selected as the study area, and the results showed that the area with high-risk of both flood and water pollution only accounts for about 0.14% of the total area, mainly distributed in the eastern junction of Longgang district and Pingshan district, where the rainstorms occur frequently and the enterprise risk sources are dense. The system comprehensive risk is mostly very low-low and very high-low, accounting for more than 76% of the total area. It is always necessary to pay attention not only to the areas with high risk level of both disasters, but also to the areas with high risk level of one disaster. The method proposed in this study can not only quantitatively reveal the formation of the induced risk, but also provide reference for early warning.