System assessment of the Kyzyl - Kuragino railroad project as an element of Russia - Mongolia - China transport corridors

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to show how large-scale railway projects of federal significance should be evaluated in a context of uncertainty. This goal is specified in relation to the Kyzyl - Kuragino project in its broader understanding not as a local-regional project that solves the problem of sustainable socio-economic development of Tyva, but as an international one affecting strategic interests not only of the border subject of the Russian Federation, but also of Russia as a whole, as well as Mongolia and China. In order to achieve the goal have been developed in the expert evaluation of competing design options of the Kyzyl - Kuragino extended project version. The option of the exit to the Chinese railway network through Mongolia to Urumqi and the option of the exit through Erdenet and Ulaanbaatar to Eren-Khoto are compared. As a result, the systematic assessment of the extended options for the Kyzyl - Kuragino railroad project by a group of experts using the proposed toolkit showed that the option to exit to the Chinese Urumqi dominates by all the decision theory criteria used to "uncover" the radical uncertainty in this case.