System Analysis of the Significance of Large-Scale Transport Projects

Abstract

AbstractThe implementation of large-scale projects affects the gross domestic product, the end-use fund, and making a decision on investing in a particular project is an extraordinary task. Projects of this scale are associated with a high degree of uncertainty and traditional methods are unacceptable as a tool for assessing their effectiveness. In the process of research, the author uses both well-known methods of system analysis and methods of neo-systemic analysis (it is proposed to use a hybrid model of verbal and non-verbal assessment models). The objects of comparative assessment are railway projects: the Subpolar Mainline, the Lensko-Kamchatka Mainline and the railway crossing to the island Sakhalin. To assess the achievement of the general goal, sub-goals were formed: military-strategic, social and economic. At the same time, the goal tree was considered in the framework of three scenarios: optimistic, intermediate and pessimistic. As a result of processing the opinions of experts, it was possible to obtain the coefficients of the relative importance (priorities) of each sub-goal in three different scenarios. At the next stage, the experts were asked to compare compositions - “alternative-scenario”, within the framework of the constructed goal tree. This approach to processing the results of the goal tree allows one to take into account the “scale” of the project, since the projects under consideration have a significant impact on the entire economy, thereby influencing the scenarios themselves, in contrast to the widely used method of hierarchy analysis, which does not take into account such impact.KeywordsProject appraisalTransport infrastructureRailway projectProject managementLarge-scale projectsMajor projectsMegaprojectAnalytic hierarchy processScenarios