Abstract
Significance The autonomous administration there is under increased pressure, exacerbated by the Gaza conflict, which has resulted in escalating confrontation between pro-Iranian Iraqi militias and Kurdish-allied US forces in Syria, as well as distracting international attention from intensified Turkish airstrike campaigns. These have damaged infrastructure vital for the local economy. Impacts Rising uncertainty will boost local sources of instability in northeast Syria. Emigration of Syrian Kurds will increase further, exacerbating local skills shortages. Russian and US opposition will for now prevent Turkey from following through on threats of a new Syrian ground operation.
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