Synthesis of expert matrices in inductive system-analytical research based on fuzzy logic algorithm

Abstract

The object of research is the process of inductive modeling of complex systems. The studies that were conducted related to the application of algorithms of the fuzzy logic theory were to coordinate the conclusions of top-level experts in system information-analytical research (SIAR) in the tasks of innovative design. The possibilities of constructing elements of expert matrices of results, as well as evaluating the effectiveness of such applications, are defined. Thanks to this, obtaining formal expert evaluations in numerical form became possible. Experimental studies have confirmed that the proposed approach to the application of fuzzy logic algorithms to the construction of matrices of expert evaluations of SIAR results is quite effective and simple to implement. In addition, this approach fits well into the general paradigm of the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH). In particular, it was established that the possibility of «retraining» such a block without significant efforts of professional experts can have a positive result, as well as have a good effect on the economic and time parameters of the research project. The main calculation formulas for the algorithm for building a fuzzy system using a neural network in a system with two rules are given. The construction of a fuzzy information output system trained on expert evaluations in the Matlab system is shown. As a result, a technologically acceptable standard deviation of 0.28268 mg/l was obtained. It has been established that by accumulating a database (knowledge) and/or using an information monitoring system, it is possible to «additionally train» a fuzzy system periodically or according to the established quality criterion in the program mode, without involving experts in this process. Thus, there are reasons to assert the importance of using a fuzzy system as one of the tools in inductive SIAR procedures