Synoptic sky surveys and the diffuse supernova neutrino background: Removing astrophysical uncertainties and revealing invisible supernovae

Abstract

The cumulative (anti)neutrino production from all core-collapse supernovae within our cosmic horizon gives rise to the diffuse supernova neutrino background (DSNB), which is on the verge of detectability. The observed flux depends on supernova physics, but also on the cosmic history of supernova explosions; currently, the cosmic supernova rate introduces a substantial (+/-40%) uncertainty, largely through its absolute normalization. However, a new class of wide-field, repeated-scan (synoptic) optical sky surveys is coming online, and will map the sky in the time domain with unprecedented depth, completeness, and dynamic range. We show that these surveys will obtain the cosmic supernova rate by direct counting, in an unbiased way and with high statistics, and thus will allow for precise predictions of the DSNB. Upcoming sky surveys will substantially reduce the uncertainties in the DSNB source history to an anticipated +/-5% that is dominated by systematics, so that the observed high-energy flux thus will test supernova neutrino physics. The portion of the universe (z < 1) accessible to upcoming sky surveys includes the progenitors of a large fraction (~ 87%) of the expected 10-26 MeV DSNB event rate. We show that precision determination of the (optically detected) cosmic supernova history will also make the DSNB into a strong probe of an extra flux of neutrinos from optically invisible supernovae, which may be unseen either due to unexpected large dust obscuration in host galaxies, or because some core-collapse events proceed directly to black hole formation and fail to give an optical outburst.