Synergistic effects of climatic factors and drought on maize yield in the east of Northwest China against the background of climate change

Abstract

Climate change affects maize production in the east of Northwest China (ENC). Based on the meteorological data, maize growth phase data, and yield data in the ENC, spatial clustering and mixed linear models were used to evaluate the effects of climatic factors and drought on maize yield. The results showed that under the background of climate change, the sowing time was earlier, the maize development phase was shorter, the mid-season was longer, and whole growth duration increased, and the planting boundary moved further northward and expanded westward. In the whole growth duration, the temperature increased and the effective precipitation (Peff) decreased. Drought increased in the initial and late season of maize growth. Maize yield was selected as an attribute element for spatial clustering, and the ENC was divided into high–high cluster (HH), low–low cluster (LL), and high–low outlier (HL) areas. In the HH area, in any growth stage, the Peff reduction and drought stress reduced the maize yield; in the initial phase, increased temperature and decreased radiation increased maize yield; in the mid-season phase, increased temperature reduced maize yield. In the LL area, increased temperature in the initial and late season phases and the decreased temperature in the development phase were conducive to the formation of maize yield; the increase of Peff in the mid-season phase and its decrease in the late season phases increased maize yield; drought mainly affected the maize development phase. In the HL area, increased temperature in the development phase and decreased temperature in the mid-season phase increased maize yield; the Peff had a positive effect on the yield, mainly affecting the development and late season phases of maize; drought stress mainly affected the initial, development, and mid-season phases of maize. These new scientific discoveries are significant for maize production management in the ENC.