Synergistic effects of climate and landscape change on the conservation of Amazonian lizards.

Abstract

The leading causes of the worldwide decline in biodiversity are global warming, allied with natural habitat loss and fragmentation. Here, we propose an analysis of the synergistic effects of these two factors in 63 species of Amazonian lizards. We predicted that the high-climatic suitability areas of species would be significantly impacted by different deforestation scenarios and the resultant landscape structure and considered that forest-dwelling species would be especially susceptible to deforestation scenarios. We also pointed out species threatened by both drivers and suggested critical areas for their future conservation. According to our results, most species will face future reductions in suitable areas for their occurrence according to five different patterns, two of which represent significant risks for 15 species. Some of these species already deal with severe habitat loss and fragmentation of their current distribution ranges, whereas others will suffer a considerable area reduction related to future range shifts. We emphasize the importance of protected areas (PAs), especially indigenous lands, and the need to plan combined strategies involving PAs’ maintenance and possible implementation of ecological corridors. Finally, we highlight eight species of thermoconformer lizards that constitute present and future conservation concerns related to the combined effects of climate change and habitat loss and that should be carefully evaluated in extinction risk assessments.